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Investment Market Overview

2009 could quite accurately be described as a year of two halves, the first six months seeing a stagnant investment market with sluggish demand, isolated opportunities and very few transactions. In contrast, the second half of the year saw a complete reversal, with exceptional levels of investor demand which - with only limited stock to pursue - drove down prime yields at a level and speed which sometimes proved difficult to keep up with.

Already, it seems apparent that the factors which drove the revival in the second half of 2009 still remain and the early part of 2010 has followed the same pattern. Investors looking to place money into the property market in 2010 will however face different circumstances and challenges and how they choose to overcome them will, to a large extent, dictate the path of the market through the course of the year.

The major change in the market is the level of prime yields, particularly in the office and High Street retail sectors, where demand has been keenest. In early 2009, prime yields were at levels above the long term average and provided an attractive income return without having to rely on rental growth. Now, however, with prime retail yields at 5 - 5.25% and prime offices at 5.5 - 5.75% in Scotland and the North of England, the returns are marginal without additional performance through further yield hardening or rental growth.

Many investors have moved higher up the risk curve for properties with shorter leases or voids, in the search for a higher initial yield. This is a sensible strategy but requires careful stock selection and good advice from your agency team! We would see this as a definite opportunity in the city centre office markets for instance, where a lack of speculative development is likely to result in future supply shortages in specific areas of the market in two - three years time.

The structure of the investment market in Scotland has been fundamentally changed by recent developments, if only perhaps temporarily. The demise of the larger HBOS backed property companies such as Kenmore and Kilmartin (along with a number of others) has left a large hole in the property company sector and, whilst banks continue to avoid lending, opportunities in this sector of the market should be available to the entrepreneurial fund buyer or well funded investor. The forthcoming sale of the Kilmartin assets should be a pointer to those moving to pick up the reins in this sector of the market.

Assuming interest rates remain low, the influx of money into property looks likely to carry on and the weight of demand may continue to widen investor requirements into broader sectors of the market perhaps, even - in selected circumstances - speculative development.

Ryden Team

The Ryden team can give you the inside track on the commercial property market in Scotland and the North of England backed by the local knowledge of our people who are doing more deals than anyone else in this market.

Want to find out more? Ryden has a presence in London every month.

Ford Swanson, Investment & Finance Partner
East Scotland
0131 473 3236
ford.swanson@ryden.co.uk

Ian Dougherty, Investment & Finance Partner
West Scotland
0141 270 3136
ian.dougherty@ryden.co.uk

Ken Shaw, Investment & Finance Partner
North Scotland
01224 569664
ken.shaw@ryden.co.uk

Matthew Edwards, Agency, Investment & Finance Partner
North England
0113 386 8823
matthew.edwards@ryden.co.uk

Ewan Cameron, Office Agency & Development Partner
Central Scotland
0141 270 3132
ewan.cameron@ryden.co.uk

David Fraser, Industrial Agency & Development Partner
Central Scotland
0131 473 3273
david.fraser@ryden.co.uk

Arron Finnie, Agency & Development Partner
North Scotland
01224 569651
arron.finnie@ryden.co.uk

Bill Marley, Retail Agency & Development Partner
Scotland & North England
0141 270 3145
bill.marley@ryden.co.uk

Dr Mark Robertson, Consulting Partner
Scotland
0131 473 3294
mark.robertson@ryden.co.uk

Investment Deals in Scotland

Broadway One, Glasgow

Broadway One

Following the letting of the whole of a 126,337 sq ft Grade A office building in Glasgow city centre to Tesco Personal Finance plc Ryden quickly went on to structure the sale, along with H2S0, for developers IVG Development (UK) Ltd and Ediston Properties Ltd. The price achieved was £51 million.

Acergy Headquarters, Aberdeen

Acergy

In the biggest commercial development sale in Aberdeen for nearly two years, Stewart Milne Developments, advised by Ryden, sold its Acergy development to a commercial property fund managed by real estate investment managers PRUPIM for £36 million. Development of the 17 acre site was completed in October 2008 and comprises four buildings in landscaped grounds. Reflecting a net initial yield of 7.1% the sale is indicative of the growing early signs of recovery in the local property market.

The Bridge, The Royal Mile, Edinburgh

The Bridge

SWIP Property Trust bought The Bridge for £41 million reflecting a net yield of c. 6%. It includes two retail units, two restaurants, a banking hall and the five star Missoni Hotel and is one of the most significant investment sales in Edinburgh this year. The sale generated significant interest and attracted bids from a mix of UK institutional investors, property companies and overseas investors. This emphasised the appeal of this type of mixed use development, its strong underlying cash flow and the wider market conference in the city of Edinburgh. Ryden represented SWIP in the transaction.